Betting Markets Offer Unreliable Predictions for 2024 Election

The upcoming 2024 presidential election between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is shaping up to be a close and hard-fought race. As the campaign heats up, many are turning to betting markets as a way to gauge the likely outcome. However, experts are warning that these markets should not be relied upon as accurate predictors of the election results.

Betting on the Unpredictable

Betting markets have become a popular source of information for those seeking to predict the outcome of the 2024 election. These markets, which allow individuals to wager on the likelihood of various electoral outcomes, have seen a surge in activity in recent weeks as Trump's odds have improved. However, a group of former government officials are cautioning the public against putting too much stock in these predictions.

Manipulation and Lack of Regulation

According to Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, Anthony Scaramucci, and Steven Tian, betting markets are not based on real polling data and are easily manipulated. They argue that the lack of liquidity and trading volume in these markets makes them vulnerable to manipulation by a relatively small number of wagers. Additionally, the authors point out that many of the leading betting platforms, such as Polymarket and Kalshi, operate outside of the United States, meaning that the bets placed on these platforms are not necessarily indicative of the preferences of American voters.

Questionable Accuracy

The authors also note that the betting markets have no established track record of accuracy when it comes to predicting election outcomes. Many of the platforms involved, such as Kalshi and Interactive Brokers, were either newly established or inactive prior to the 2024 election cycle, making it difficult to assess their reliability.

Divergence from Polling Data

The authors' analysis of the betting markets' predictions reveals a significant divergence from the results of national polls. While the polls show a tight race between Harris and Trump, with the candidates neck-and-neck, the betting markets are painting a much rosier picture for Trump, with some platforms giving him a substantial lead.

Caution Advised

Ultimately, the authors urge the public to exercise caution when relying on betting markets as a source of information about the 2024 election. They argue that these markets are not a reliable indicator of the true state of the race and that voters should instead focus on authoritative sources of polling data and election analysis.